Have Québec's vital signs improved between 2015 and 2019?
This project is founded on the idea that GDP on its own is too narrow an indicator to properly evaluate the well-being of Quebecers and that the economy, society and the environment are interdependent. As economic development makes sense only if it serves people and the planet, several other indicators must be considered in addition to GDP in order ro achieve a more accurate assessment of the of our quality of life. In this perspective, public policies play a key role in building a fair and sustainable balance for humanity. That said, have Québec's vital signs improved in recent years? Although a five-year period is too short a timeline to illustrate a conclusive trend, between 2015 and 2019 indicators generally progressed in the right direction. While nominal GDP growth was 4.4% per year during this period, it obscures unfavorable or unsatisfactory trends in quality of life, health and environment. Several indicators on key social and environmental issues, such as social economy, environmental health and biodiversity, are missing due to a lack of robust and frequent data. Producing this data is essential to accurately assess quality of life and inform policy making. Additionally, a lack of targets in public policy for many indicators limit the interpretation of the data. Identifying targets, based on collective values, will guide efforts to reach desired quality of life goals. Finally, the structural and cyclical effects of COVID-19 need to be measured in the coming years to assess their impact on post-2019 trends.
Detailed Trends – 3 pillars and total
Green = improvement / Red = deterioration / Grey = unchanged or an insignificant change (excludes single data point indicators)
| Economy | |||
|---|---|---|---|
↗︎9Ontario | ↗︎9Canada | ||
↘︎2Québec | ↘︎3Ontario | ↘︎1Canada | |
4Québec | 5Ontario | 7Canada | |
| Society | |||
↗︎12Québec | ↗︎8Ontario | ↗︎9Canada | |
↘︎1Québec | ↘︎3Ontario | ↘︎2Canada | |
5Québec | 6Ontario | 7Canada | |
| Environment | |||
↗︎4Québec | ↗︎4Ontario | ↗︎4Canada | |
↘︎2Québec | ↘︎3Ontario | ↘︎5Canada | |
5Québec | 3Ontario | 2Canada | |
| Total | |||
↗︎27Québec | ↗︎22Ontario | ↗︎22Canada | |
↘︎5Québec | ↘︎9Ontario | ↘︎8Canada | |
14Québec | 14Ontario | 16Canada | |
Economic Trends
From 2015 to 2019, Québec's economic and financial indicators have improved. Whether in terms of per capita income, the job market, productivity, investment, job insecurity, or entrepreneurship, all indicators have evolved favorably. In terms of employment, involuntary part-time work has declined, job insecurity has been less severe, job quality has been on the rise, and generally the labor market has improved. Strong economic growth has reduced public debt, even if household debt has increased due to low borrowing rates. However, there are many areas of economic concern, including education. Québec students’ PISA tests results (Programme for International Student Assessment - OECD) have declined over the past five years. Furthermore, the proportion of the population aged 25 and over with high school or post-secondary diplomas have remained relatively stable. Overall public and private investment in research and development is declining even though innovation helps Québec secure future economic niches and improve job quality. The share of GDP dedicated to environmental products and clean technologies has declined by more than 10% between 2015 and 2019, while Québec is targeting a 20% increase in the proportion of Québec companies that implement environmentally-responsible business practices, including the adoption of clean technologies. Among the economic indicators that are not yet documented, the absence of robust and frequent data on the vitality of social economy and collective entrepreneurship in Québec is noted. This is a noteworthy blind spot due to the importance of the social economy as a vector of wealth and social innovation in Québec.
Societal Trends
From 2015 to 2019, socioeconomic conditions generally improved. Inequality has decreased, across all indicators. Similarly, the level of food insecurity has decreased (although this provides no indication of food quality), average life expectancy has increased, and the severity of crime has decreased. In more marginalized segments of society, namely immigrants and Indigenous peoples access to employment was noticeably higher. However, social concerns remain. Decline in vacancy rates below a 3% equilibrium level in most municipalities has exacerbated difficulties in accessing affordable housing. Wage inequalities have increased slightly between men and women (despite the objective of Quebec's Pay Equity Act), although the employment rate gap has narrowed slightly. Finally, Quebec has seen a deterioration in the perceived mental health of the population aged 12 and over, which does not yet take into account the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the lack of robust and frequent data, the Indicators of Well-being in Québec are missing important social indicators, including quality of the childcare system, community and volunteer involvement, homelessness, environmental health, and Indigenous languages. These indicators are needed in order to inform public policy and therefore should be monitored through systematic data collection.
Environmental Trends
Between 2015 and 2019, Québec's environmental record was mixed. The percentage of terrestrial and marine protected areas exceeded 10% (the Québec target of 17% was reached in 2020 and a new target of 30% by 2030 has been formalized), investments in public transit infrastructure have increased but will need to accelerate (Québec's target is to balance investments between public transit and the road network by 2030), and drinking water consumption per capita decreased by 6% (Québec's target is a 20% reduction below 2015 levels by 2025). Quebec also consumed 4% less energy to produce the same amount of wealth (Québec's target is to improve the energy use efficiency by 15% below 2013 levels by 2030) and single-family social housing projects have decreased slightly. This reflects a possible trend towards urban densification, which is essential to the protection of natural and agricultural environments. While some environmental trends are moving in the right direction, the pace of progress is too slow and there are significant areas of concern: GHG emissions have increased despite Québec’s 2030 target of 37.5% reduction below levels of 1990, the number of vehicles on the road have increased by 6% (Québec's 2030 target is to reduce the share of trips made by single drivers by 20% below 2011 levels), household access to green spaces has decreased, and the number of poor air quality days is stagnating. The state of biodiversity is worrisome, especially due to the artificialization of surfaces in southern Québec (the extent of the degradation cannot be validated without robust and reliable indicators for the whole province). Finally, Québec’s Circularity Index, estimated at 3.5% (32 tons of material consumed per capita), is far from the current world level of 8.6% and even farther from the global objective of 17% by 2030. Due to the lack of robust and consistent data, the Indicators of Well-being in Québec are missing key environmental indicators such as: sustainable transportation (e.g., modal share of sustainable modes of transportation, long-distance car commute to work); climate change adaptation (e.g., disasters and emergencies due to extreme weather events); biodiversity (e.g., ecosystem evolution, wetlands and water conservation status); surface artificialization; and carbon sequestration capacity. Without better data, Québec cannot adopt appropriate environmental public policies whose effects can be measured.