Highlights

Overall, the trend in Québec in terms of the three sustainability pillars – the economy, society and the environment – was positive and Québec experienced better overall progress on the three pillars than Ontario or Canada did.

Québec has experienced significant progress on its economic and social pillars, including higher disposable income, a more efficient and accessible labour market, and improvements in the areas of poverty and inequality. On the other hand, in Québec, Ontario and Canada, the environmental pillar remains a concern due to the challenges we face in the fight against climate change.

Québec, Ontario and Canada are still lacking adequate social and environmental data.

Introduction 

The Indicators of Well-Being in Québec project is based on the now well-established fact that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is too restrictive an indicator, and that the measure is too narrow to adequately assess the collective well-being of Quebecers and the interconnect nature of the region’s social, economic and environmental factors. If we want to get a more complete picture of our collective well-being, we need to use a broader range of indicators. Given this insight, the objective of the Indicators of Well-Being in Québec is to help public decision-makers develop public policies that will lead to truly inclusive and sustainable economic development.

General Findings

Overall, well-being in Québec appears to have increased over the past few decades, largely due to improvements in the economic and social pillars. Rising per capita income and a more accessible labour market are responsible for these improvements, as well as decreased poverty and an apparent reduction in inequality.

However, the environmental picture is less rosy. Most trends point to stagnation or even deterioration in environmental indicators. In many cases, Québec is still far from meeting government targets, particularly in terms of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions achieved between 1990 and 2020. Moreover, the significant lack of environmental data means that there are many so-called “orphaned indicators” that restrict our ability to carry out the kind of complete and robust diagnoses that can support decision making. For example, the most recent scientific data reveal an accelerating decline of species and biodiversity[1], a trend which Québec has not escaped (Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Canada, 2018; Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, 2022). Moreover, the lack of data and indicators on Québec's biodiversity makes it difficult to assess the situation accurately and to take prompt corrective action. Overall, Québec has a long way to go if it wants to improve its environmental record.

[1] Rosenberg et al. (2019). Decline of the North American Avifauna. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (2002). Climate Change and Biodiversity. Dasgupta (2021). The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review.

Methodology

This summary describes the main findings of data dating sometimes back to the mid-1970s and in some cases up to 2022. This second edition significantly expands on the first Indicators of Well-Being in Québec, which covered only the years 2015 to 2019. This edition also compares Québec trends with those of Ontario and Canada as a whole. And finally, three new cultural indicators have been added to the analysis, which focus on a major feature of our quality of life in Québec, which brings the total number of quantified indicators to 54 and the total number of orphaned indicators to 18.

The more recent data sample means we are more able to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Québec's economic, social and environmental pillars, as well as provide more insight into the overall trends.

We analyzed all the available data for each indicator in order to identify the major trends across all three pillars. As such, the trends represent the progress of the various indicators over time. A number of factors affect how indicators are analyzed, including: the amount of data available, how the indicator changes over time, the average annual growth rate, and contextual analysis. The aggregate analysis of all of these factors is then used to ascertain whether an indicator has improved, deteriorated or remained the same over time.

This process, which is different for each indicator, was carried out for each jurisdiction for the 54 quantitative indicators, thus providing an in-depth analysis for Québec and comparative analyses with Ontario and Canada as a whole[2]. It's impossible to create standardized quantified tables showing whether an indicator has improved, deteriorated or remained the same, because the analysis parameters vary from one indicator to another. Imposing a standard analysis period would have meant excluding several indicators that had no data for the reference period. We therefore opted for a more pragmatic approach in order to include all the indicators in our analysis.

[2] In January 2022, the first edition of the IWBQ focused on Québec for the 2015-2019 period. The theoretical sample on which the major trends presented here are based is much larger and includes comparisons with Ontario and Canada. In some cases, we were unable to use exactly the same indicators or sources as were used in the project’s first phase. In fact, to ensure data uniformity and generate the most uniform indicators possible, Statistics Canada was our preferred data source.

Findings for Québec

Economy

The economic indicators show a marked improvement in Québec's economic situation. These indicators, some of which date back to 1976, have improved overall through 2021. In fact, of the 17 economic indicators analyzed, 11 have improved significantly, 4 have remained stable or unchanged and 2 have deteriorated. All indicators for the economic pillar have more than one data point.

A significant increase in per capita disposable income, a more robust labour market, a more skilled and educated workforce and slightly higher labour productivity have been the main drivers of Québec's improved economic situation in recent decades.

Some of the gains were in traditional economic indicators: disposable income increased by about 67% between 1981 and 2020, with an average annualized growth rate of 1.3%; the employment rate rose by about 30% between 1976 and 2021, with an average annualized growth rate of 0.6%; and real GDP per capita grew by about 60% over the same period, with an average annualized growth rate of 1.2%.

The labour market situation and worker skills also contributed significantly to the economic pillar's strong performance. Québec has experienced a significant decrease in involuntary part-time jobs (a 2.8% drop between 1997 and 2021) as well as a marked decline in the percentage of youth aged 15 to 24 who are neither in employment, education or training (a 13% reduction between 1976 and 2021), suggesting that the labour market is gradually making more efficient use of its resources. However, despite an overall improvement, the trends show that Québec's labour market is in a state of upheaval due to a shrinking workforce.

Despite the improvements in labour market accessibility, as noted in the data, this finding needs to be qualified. Progress is still needed to better integrate more vulnerable and marginalized groups, which could help reduce poverty and economic inequality. Furthermore, Québec has a significant number of job vacancies due to its aging population. This high job vacancy rate could affect future economic activity.

In terms of education and training, between 1990 and 2021, the percentage of the population aged 25 and over having at least a high school diploma increased by approximately 29 percentage points, an average annual increase of 1.4%, suggesting that the Québec population is growing increasingly educated. Furthermore, between 1997 and 2021, the quality of Québec jobs improved. Whereas in 1997, 43.5% of jobs were low quality, today, 75% are classified as average or high quality, suggesting that our economy is increasingly moving towards higher value-added operations.

On the other hand, some indicators that have deteriorated or remained stable are cause for concern, especially household and public sector debt. For example, between 2010 and 2021, the ratio of household debt to household income was consistently over 100%, meaning household debt exceeds annual income, making people more vulnerable to rising loan rates. The Québec government's debt also grew by more than 7 percentage points between 1997 and 2021, an average annual increase of 0.8%. In fact, the Québec government's net debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 42.4% of GDP in 2021.

Finally, if we are to provide a more complete picture of how this pillar is evolving, we still need to analyze a number of as-yet-undocumented economic indicators. For example, the current lack of indicators on the growth of community-based entrepreneurship and, more generally, on Québec's growing social economy sector – an important driver of social innovation – is a major blind spot in our analysis.

Society

The social indicators suggest that the social conditions of the Québec population have been by and large improving since the years when data was first collected, with some indicators dating back to 1976. Of the 22 social indicators analyzed, 12 have improved significantly, 5 have remained stable or unchanged, 3 have only one data point (meaning their progress can’t be assessed), and 2 have deteriorated.

This improvement in the social indicators was driven by a decrease in poverty and a reduction in inequality based on income, gender and ethnicity. Other factors, such as a reduction in crime, increased life expectancy, and greater support for community-based organizations, have also contributed to these positive developments.

Similarly, the declining share of the population below the low-income threshold, as measured by both the Market Basket Measure (MBM) and the Low Income Measure (LIM-50), points to a decline in poverty in the province.

With regard to income inequality measures, between 1976 and 2020 both the Gini coefficient and the Palma ratio improved. While the gender gaps in employment and wages have also narrowed, they nevertheless remain substantial. Finally, Québec's employment gap between Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals has narrowed, and the economic integration of immigrants has improved, suggesting that inequality between the Canadian-born population and newcomers and between Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals has decreased.

Sports and culture, access to housing, and mental health continue to be areas of concern.

In fact, between 2010 and 2019, the proportion of GDP allocated to culture and sport decreased, even though the benefits of sport, particularly with respect to physical and mental health, are well documented. (Red Cross, 2021; Québec, 2022) Similarly, research has shown that producing or consuming arts and culture has health benefits for the people engaged in those activities.

More specifically, there has been no noticeable improvement in the proportion of cultural sector jobs or in access to and use of libraries, which are nevertheless considered to be prime locations for accessing culture[3].

On a more positive note, the data indicate that, between 1994 and 2021, arts councils' per capita funding for arts organizations and artists increased by more than 300%, from about $5 per person to $22 per person.

Basically, the three aforementioned cultural indicators don't provide any clear conclusions about the level of support for or access to culture and sports.

Québec's housing vacancy rate fell between 1990 and 2021, bottoming out in 2019. This indicates that people are struggling to find available rental units, a phenomenon that tends to be more prevalent in large urban centres.

Among the social indicators, between 2012 and 2020, the proportion of people aged 12 and over who perceive their mental health to be good or very good plateaued. The fact that this situation has remained unchanged for five years suggests that access to resources could be improved.

Although the social pillar includes 22 indicators, many of them are orphaned indicators with weak or missing data. These indicators must be quantified if we are to create a more comprehensive and in-depth picture of social conditions in Québec. Some would be instrumental in helping us draw a more accurate picture of the stamina of Québec society. These include the quality of child care services, the number of people experiencing homelessness, environmental health, community involvement and volunteer work, the LIM-60 (a relative measure of the income needed to escape poverty) and the strength of Aboriginal languages.

Overall, although several social indicators have improved, this is by no means a sign that Québec's social situation is now ideal. For example, while support for community organizations increased between 2007 and 2020, since the pandemic, many have been unable to meet the needs of their clients due to chronic underfunding.

Environment

The Indicators of Well-Being in Québec give an unfavourable assessment of the state of our environment. Among the 15 environmental indicators that were analyzed, only 4 showed a clear improvement, 5 remained stable or unchanged, 4 have only one data point (meaning their progress can’t be assessed) and 2 have deteriorated. Given the current situation – the fight against climate change, the crossing of planetary boundaries, the loss of biodiversity and the significant human impacts on water quantity and quality – the stagnation or even deterioration of several environmental indicators points to a lack of effective action in this area. The obvious conclusion is that a great deal of work remains to be done.

The 4 indicators that have improved are related to land and water use. Indeed, the percentage of protected areas in Québec has more than quadrupled between 2002 and 2021, rising to 16.3% in 2021. More protected areas mean greater preservation of biodiversity. We must continue moving in this direction, focusing on ecosystems that are crucial to biodiversity and its benefits for humans. These efforts will also support international commitments by countries to protect 30% of their land and water by 2030.

Since 2011, the amount of drinking water used per capita in Québec has decreased by approximately 16%. However, this amount must be reduced by an additional 13% if the province is to meet its 2025 target. The percentage of municipal facilities that meet wastewater treatment standards has also increased, a positive trend in reducing the negative impacts of wastewater on the environment.

Between 1990 and 2021, single-family homes accounted for 33.5% of new housing starts, probably as a result of Montreal and Québec City's PMAD (metropolitan land use and development plans). This figure would appear to indicate urban densification[4] in some regions. Unlike densification, urban sprawl requires large areas of land to be cleared, which adversely impacts the local fauna and flora. However, housing starts are not an accurate measure of how much land has been built up, or of the impacts of urban sprawl in regions with the most pressure from urban growth. Increasing urban density is also a possible solution for developing the supply of housing, particularly near jobs and services.

Unlike the somewhat positive findings of the other two pillars, the results of the environmental pillar are troubling. For example, air quality has deteriorated and total GHG emissions have decreased only marginally since 1990, despite a larger decrease in per capita emissions. In addition to its direct adverse effects on human health and safety, global warming also indirectly affects air quality.

The Québec government appears to be having trouble meeting its GHG emission targets. While the targeted reduction for the period from 1990 to 2020 was 20%, the actual reduction from 1990 to 2019 was only 1.1%, which rose to 9.8% in the final year (from 1990 and 2020), largely as a result of the global pandemic, and will most likely rise again in 2021 once the official data is published, but will not come close to achieving the objective. Québec will therefore have to work hard to reduce its carbon footprint faster and reach its 2030 target of a 37.5% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels.

Sustainable mobility is another area of concern. Although Québec has set a target of a 37.5% reduction in GHG emissions from the transportation sector by 2030, and a 20% reduction in trips made by single-occupancy vehicle by 2030 compared to 2011, the number of vehicles on Québec roads has steadily increased, by 44.2% between 1999 and 2019.

Not only does this increase result in more GHG emissions, it's incompatible with a carbon-neutral society based on energy-sufficient transportation options (IPCC, 2022). Moreover, in 2019, the number of vehicles per person in Québec had increased to 1.05 registered vehicles per person, up from 0.84 in 1999. A ratio greater than 1 vehicle per person is cause for concern, given that a percentage of the population doesn't drive and therefore can't own a registered vehicle. The Québec government is aiming to increase its public transit service by 5% per year between 2018 and 2023 through its Sustainable Mobility Policy - 2030, and to bring road and public transit investments back into balance through its Green Economy Plan - 2030. The public transit indicator, i.e., the number of buses per capita, didn't fluctuate significantly between 1999 and 2019, indicating there is room for improvement in this area.

Of the three pillars, the environmental pillar is the one for which indicators are sorely lacking, due to a lack of robust and recurrent data. Indeed, multi-year, time-series data are rare, which makes finding environmental indicators even more difficult than for the other pillars[5]. Robust indicators such as carbon sequestration capacity, number of natural disasters and emergencies, climate change adaptation, proportion of sustainable transportation trips, soil artificialization, changes in ecosystems and biodiversity are missing. Having these indicators is essential to provide public policy makers with a better understanding and appreciation of Québec's environmental situation.

[3] The first-ever BiblioQUALITÉ report (only in French), published in 2022, gave Québec libraries an overall score of 66% for acquisition spending, hours of operation, surface area, human resources and seating capacity. [4] This indicator is interesting but incomplete, due to the lack of a soil artificialization index. [5] By way of example, Québec's circular economy index only exists for 2018.

Comparative analysis of Québec, Ontario and Canada

This part of the report compares the progress of Québec, Ontario and Canada as a whole with respect to the indicators. It makes no judgement on the actual level of improvement or deterioration that was observed.

Economy

The number of improved economic indicators is higher in Québec than in either Canada or Ontario. In Québec, 11 of the 17 indicators improved, compared to 9 for Ontario and Canada. However, the economic conditions of all three jurisdictions improved significantly overall. First, per capita income and per capita GDP improved significantly in all jurisdictions, by a fairly similar margin.

Like Québec, Ontario is dealing with rising debt, as its provincial government and private household debt have increased. In contrast, between 1997 and 2021, the Government of Canada managed to reduce its public debt by about 18 percentage points, but household debt remains relatively unchanged.

Québec is the only jurisdiction with a declining unemployment rate. Despite some increases, particularly during recessions, between 1976 and 2021 Québec's unemployment rate fell by 1.1 percentage points. During that period, the employment rate increased significantly, by almost 19.5 percentage points.

By comparison, despite having relatively low unemployment rates, unemployment rates in Ontario and Canada increased by 1.9 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, for the same period. The increase in employment rates in Ontario and Canada was not as significant as that recorded in Québec.

Overall, Québec's labour market improved, while the labour markets of the other two jurisdictions remained fairly stable. However, the job quality of all three jurisdictions has improved, as has the proportion of the population aged 25 and over having at least a high school diploma. This finding would suggest that the workforce is more involved in higher value-added activities requiring more skilled employees. In addition, there is a decline in all jurisdictions in the percentage of young people who are neither in employment, education or training. All three jurisdictions experienced an improvement in hourly productivity, with average annual growth rates of 1.1 percent for Québec and Ontario and 1.2 percent for Canada. However, since Québec started at a slightly lower rate than the other two jurisdictions, the productivity gap between the jurisdictions has widened: in 1997, Québec’s productivity was $3.5/hour less than Ontario’s and $4.4/hour less than Canada’s. By 2021, these figures stood at $4.9/hour less and $7.0/hour less, respectively.

Society

Québec once again stands out among the three jurisdictions analyzed in terms of its society. Over half of Québec's social indicators have improved, compared to slightly less than half for Canada's and one-third for Ontario's.

Several indicators have shown similar trends in all three jurisdictions. First, job inequality and the gender wage gap decreased in all three jurisdictions. Crime also decreased, whereas life expectancy and support for the work of community organizations increased. As in Québec, Ontario and Canada saw no significant change in the proportion of people with very good or excellent perceived mental health.

However, the areas of concern for the three jurisdictions vary somewhat. Québec's rental vacancy rate fell between 1990 and 2021 and, despite inter-regional variations, the rate has remained below the 3% critical threshold. In contrast, the vacancy rate has remained relatively unchanged in Canada and has increased in Ontario. However, although (as mentioned) the rate is below 3% for Québec, vacancy rates are significantly low across the board, suggesting that access to housing is difficult in all three jurisdictions. Access to housing is particularly difficult for disadvantaged households. In addition to the vacancy rate, which reflects the lack of housing, governments are increasingly aware of a crisis in housing affordability, which affects all households. Moreover, unlike in Québec, income inequality has worsened in Ontario but has remained stable in Canada as a whole.

Québec's arts and culture funding model has proven to be successful, with investments three times greater than in Canada and four times greater than in Ontario. This success is due to the fact that provincial and municipal governments work together within the framework of cultural development agreements, through Crown corporations and arts councils, to ensure that a steadily growing number of Quebecers have access to the arts.

Environment

As for the environmental trends, they're very similar across jurisdictions. In fact, each of the three jurisdictions studied has four indicators that have improved, three of which are common to all three: the extent of protected areas, drinking water use and urban densification. The fourth indicator that improved was: meeting municipal wastewater treatment standards in Québec, access to parks and green spaces in Ontario, and green GDP in Canada. However, the areas of concern for the other two jurisdictions are the same as those mentioned for Québec, namely: poor air quality and sustainable transportation, which don't appear to be improving in any of the three jurisdictions. Biodiversity is another area of concern in Ontario and Canada, but the lack of similar data for Québec makes it impossible to draw any comparisons between the three jurisdictions.

Like Québec, Ontario is having trouble reducing its GHG emissions, while Canada actually increased its emissions by 13% between 1990 and 2020. Despite the decrease in emissions per person and per dollar of GDP across jurisdictions, the overall level of GHG emissions remains high, undermining the efforts of all three areas to combat climate change. Furthermore, air quality across all three jurisdictions deteriorated by between 24% and 35% over the aforementioned 20-year period, leading to adverse health effects for the people living there.

Sustainable mobility is another issue affecting all three jurisdictions. The number of vehicles on the road and the ratio of vehicles per person have increased, thereby generating more GHG emissions.

Finally, biodiversity appears to be an area of concern for Ontario and Canada. While this trend can be considered widespread, the lack of comparable data for Québec prevents us from drawing any definitive conclusions. Between 2008 and 2018, the number of threatened and endangered species in Ontario jumped by 34%, and by 31% between 1970 and 2016 in Canada. The destruction of these jurisdictions’ land and water as well as their agricultural, industrial and residential pollution may explain these findings (IPBES, 2021; Canada Research Chair in Ecological Economics at the Université du Québec in Outaouais, 2020). Logically, the situation is probably not that much different in Québec.

A word about COVID-19

By including more recent data, we can begin to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indicators of Well-Being in Québec. The events of 2020 and 2021 impacted the evolution of certain trends. While some of these phenomena have had negative impacts, others effects have been more positive.

The economic pillar was probably the one most negatively affected in Québec during the health crisis as, during this period, there was an increase in the unemployment rate due to the shutdown of various supposedly non-essential sectors. The labour underutilization rate also jumped between 2019 and 2020, again due to the 2020 slowdown in certain economic sectors. However, in 2021, these indicators returned to positive territory.

According to the indicators analyzed, the social pillar improved during the pandemic. For instance, during 2020 and 2021, inequality and poverty rates registered their largest decline in 20 years. This reduction can be explained in large part by the massive support provided through various government programs during the pandemic.

While these developments may seem positive, it's important to remember that many people lost their jobs during the pandemic, and had to rely on emergency government assistance to meet their basic needs.

Some of the trends relating to the social pillar have been positively affected. GHG emissions, for example, have decreased and the percentage of the energy consumed from renewable sources has increased, largely due to a reduction in travel and commuting. However, this temporary dip in GHG emissions was short-lived, as the upward trend in GHG emissions returned in earnest in 2021.

Limitations

Although analyzing overall trends gives us an idea of how Québec's well-being is shaping up, we must take certain limitations into account when interpreting the results.

First of all, the sample size for some of the time-series data is limited. This explains the existence of indicators with a sample that's limited to a few data points, or for which data are missing. This lack of data prevents us from making as exhaustive an analysis of Québec's well-being as we would like, particularly in the social and environmental fields.

Second, because we wanted to include as many indicators as possible, we didn’t use a specific time period for the analysis as doing so would have meant excluding some indicators, thereby making the overall trend table less complete.

Aggregate trends do not take into account more granular regional patterns, which may explain why some indicators do not seem consistent with people's actual experience, such as the extent of urban sprawl and housing affordability issues. Some regions, for example, experience poorer air quality or higher poverty rates while, for other, it's the reverse. Aggregating the data gives the big picture, but cannot show regional diversity. It's important for us to work [DH1] with government authorities and experts in the various fields to improve the way we measure and monitor the relevant indicators so we can better describe the actual situation experienced by all Quebecers.

Finally, we would have liked to compare some of the more important indicators to previously set government targets. This comparison would have enabled us to know whether or not Québec is close to achieving a target, or whether it has been exceeded. Of the indicators examined in this analysis, we were only able to use the following targets to analyze the findings: GHG emissions, percentage of protected areas, amount of waste materials diverted, amount of drinking water used, number of SOV trips, and access to and level of sustainable transportation services.

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